Le Havre 0-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Le Havre at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Rodez make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Le Havre (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre's home record at Stade Océane: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rodez's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Le Havre against 1.40 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Le Havre 0W, Rodez 0W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 43% versus Rodez 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 29% | Rodez 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.90 xG and Rodez 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.740 / defence 0.966 | Rodez attack 0.807 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.060. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Le Havre games / 21 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 35% | Draw 34% | Rodez 31%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Rodez 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Rodez's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | Rodez 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights