Laval 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis Le Basser plays host to Laval versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Laval have posted 0W 1D 2L at Stade Francis Le Basser — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Francis Le Basser this season.
PAU (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PAU have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Laval, 1.10 for PAU — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Laval register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, PAU in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 57% versus PAU 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 57% | PAU 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.53 xG and PAU 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.028 / defence 1.450 | PAU attack 0.885 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.150. Data: 7 Laval games / 45 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 39% | Draw 25% | PAU 36%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Laval 100% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 39% | Draw 25% | PAU 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Laval 1.53 / PAU 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.028 / def 1.450 | PAU attack 0.885 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Laval (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.48
PAU xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs PAU kick off?
Laval vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs PAU?
Laval 0 - 1 PAU.
Where is Laval vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs PAU part of?
Laval vs PAU is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 39% chance of winning, PAU a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Laval and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Laval and PAU in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.86 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. PAU (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Laval's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.89x) against Laval's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
39%
2.58
25%
4.03
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Laval xG
Total xG
3.01
1.48
PAU xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Laval and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Laval and 1.48 for PAU, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Laval's recent record stands at 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 3L across 7 games — 0.57 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Laval by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAU heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Laval have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
PAU's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 0.71 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and PAU in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while PAU have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 0.33 PPG; PAU away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAU won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
2
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, PAU have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Laval 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Laval and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Laval, 100% for PAU — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Laval and 33% for PAU. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Laval's games and 100% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Laval's matches and 33% of PAU's.
Do Laval and PAU tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PAU in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Laval 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.53 xG and PAU 1.48 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.03 / defence 1.45 against PAU attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 39% | Draw 25% | PAU 36%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 57%, PAU 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with PAU winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.