Laval 1-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Laval welcome Annecy to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Laval 1.40 PPG, Annecy 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Laval, 0 for Annecy and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Laval winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 46% versus Annecy 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 59% | Annecy 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.56 xG and Annecy 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.058 / defence 1.184 | Annecy attack 1.099 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.061. Annecy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Laval's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Laval games / 22 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 42% | Draw 24% | Annecy 34%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Annecy 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Laval 50% | Annecy 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 42% | Draw 24% | Annecy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Laval 1.56 / Annecy 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.058 / def 1.184 | Annecy attack 1.099 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Laval (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Annecy xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Annecy kick off?
Laval vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Annecy?
Laval 1 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Laval vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Annecy part of?
Laval vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 42% chance of winning, Annecy a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Laval and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 0 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Laval and Annecy in?
Laval (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Annecy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.06) and Annecy's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.08
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Laval xG
Total xG
2.94
1.38
Annecy xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Laval and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Laval and 1.38 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 3D 11L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.23 PPG, Annecy on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Laval's home form reads 5W 1D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.09 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Annecy in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 8W 3D 11L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Annecy have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Annecy away?
Laval's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.45 PPG; Annecy away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Laval or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Annecy in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Laval's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 54%, Annecy 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Laval) and 46% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 36%; Annecy in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Laval's recent matches and 36% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Laval's matches and 46% of Annecy's.
Do Laval and Annecy tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Annecy in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval and Annecy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval and Annecy finished level at 1-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.56 xG and Annecy 1.38 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.06 / defence 1.18 against Annecy attack 1.10 / defence 1.26, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 42% | Draw 24% | Annecy 34%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 59%, Annecy 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.23 PPG, Annecy 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.