Guingamp vs Saint Etienne – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Guingamp welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 3, Saint Etienne 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Saint Etienne 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 58% | Saint Etienne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.33 xG and Saint Etienne 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.050 / defence 1.181 | Saint Etienne attack 1.109 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Guingamp games / 43 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 29% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 46%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Saint Etienne 2.17. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Saint Etienne 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 29% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Guingamp 1.33 / Saint Etienne 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.050 / def 1.181 | Saint Etienne attack 1.109 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Saint Etienne xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne part of?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 29% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Guingamp and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 3W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Saint Etienne in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.05x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
29%
3.42
25%
4.07
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.05
1.72
Saint Etienne xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
5%
19.18
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.72 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 12D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.79 PPG from 43 outings (23W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Guingamp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.72 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.38 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Saint Etienne runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 3, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Guingamp 1-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 43%, Saint Etienne 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 57% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 33%; Guingamp have failed to score in 29% of games; Saint Etienne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Guingamp's recent matches and 48% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Guingamp's recent games and 57% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.