Guingamp 1-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Paris FC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Paris FC meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris FC's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Paris FC are 1.40 PPG clear of Guingamp in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.60 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guingamp lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 58% versus Paris FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 46% | Paris FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.14 xG and Paris FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.063 / defence 1.276 | Paris FC attack 1.048 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.012. Data: 24 Guingamp games / 24 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 31% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Paris FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 80% | Paris FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 31% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Guingamp 1.14 / Paris FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.063 / def 1.276 | Paris FC attack 1.048 / def 1.081 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Paris FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Paris FC kick off?
Guingamp vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Guingamp 1 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Guingamp vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Paris FC part of?
Guingamp vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 31% chance of winning, Paris FC a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guingamp and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Paris FC?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Paris FC in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Paris FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (1.05x) against Guingamp's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
31%
3.27
28%
3.52
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.49
1.35
Paris FC xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.65
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.35 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp's recent record stands at 7W 9D 8L from 24 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 5L across 24 games — 1.96 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guingamp heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 4W 4D 3L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 6W 1D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.46 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 7W 9D 8L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 14W 5D 5L in their last 24 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.45 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Paris FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Paris FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 82%, Paris FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Guingamp) and 36% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Paris FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Guingamp's games and 46% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Guingamp's recent games and 36% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Paris FC tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 25, as Guingamp and Paris FC drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.14 xG and Paris FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.06 / defence 1.28 against Paris FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 31% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 41%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 46%, Paris FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Paris FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.