Guingamp 1-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Niort travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Niort — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.40 (Niort). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Niort and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Niort winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Niort trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 60% versus Niort 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 44% | Niort 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.32 xG and Niort 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.033 / defence 1.256 | Niort attack 0.888 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 0.975. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Guingamp games / 25 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 30% | Niort 30%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Niort 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 90% | Niort 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 30% | Niort 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Guingamp 1.32 / Niort 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.033 / def 1.256 | Niort attack 0.888 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.010 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Niort xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Niort kick off?
Guingamp vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Niort?
Guingamp 1 - 0 Niort.
Where is Guingamp vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Niort part of?
Guingamp vs Niort is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 41% chance of winning, Niort a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Guingamp and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Niort?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 0 | Niort 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Niort in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Niort (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.03) and Niort's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.38
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.41
1.09
Niort xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.09 for Niort, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 7W 10D 8L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort's form line: 10W 5D 10L from 25 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.24 PPG, Niort on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (4W 5D 3L).
On the road, Niort have gone 4W 2D 6L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.12 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Niort in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Niort in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Niort have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Niort away?
Guingamp's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.42 PPG; Niort away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Niort in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Niort specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Niort have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Niort?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 83%, Niort 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Guingamp) and 58% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Niort in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Niort?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Guingamp's games and 42% of Niort's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guingamp's recent games and 58% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Niort tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Niort in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Niort 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Niort 1-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.32 xG and Niort 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Niort landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Niort attack 0.89 / defence 1.27, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 41% | Draw 30% | Niort 30%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 44%, Niort 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Niort's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.24 PPG, Niort 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.