Guingamp 3-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guingamp at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nancy make the trip to Stade du Roudourou to face Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade du Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Nancy have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nancy's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Guingamp against 1.10 for Nancy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Guingamp have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Nancy in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Guingamp 0W, Nancy 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Nancy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nancy — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 59% versus Nancy 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 38% | Nancy 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.52 xG and Nancy 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.966 / defence 1.210 | Nancy attack 0.685 / defence 1.572. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.912. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.572 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Guingamp games / 29 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 27% | Nancy 18%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Nancy 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 80% | Nancy 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 27% | Nancy 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Guingamp 1.52 / Nancy 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.966 / def 1.210 | Nancy attack 0.685 / def 1.572 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Nancy xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Nancy kick off?
Guingamp vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Nancy?
Guingamp 3 - 1 Nancy.
Where is Guingamp vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Nancy part of?
Guingamp vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 55% chance of winning, Nancy a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Guingamp and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 0 | Nancy 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Nancy in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Nancy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guingamp's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Nancy's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.69x) against Guingamp's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.76
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.28
0.76
Nancy xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
4%
25.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.76 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Nancy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp's recent record stands at 8W 12D 9L from 29 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Nancy, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 16L across 29 games — 0.79 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guingamp by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 5W 6D 3L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nancy's away record stands at 1W 4D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.83 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Nancy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Nancy in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Nancy have gone 5W 8D 16L in their last 29 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Nancy away?
Guingamp's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.50 PPG; Nancy away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nancy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nancy?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Nancy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Nancy 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Nancy?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Guingamp, 57% for Nancy — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Guingamp) and 43% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Nancy in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Nancy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Guingamp's games and 57% of Nancy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Guingamp's recent games and 43% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Nancy tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Nancy in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Nancy 3-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.52 xG and Nancy 0.76 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Nancy attack 0.69 / defence 1.57, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 55% | Draw 27% | Nancy 18%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 38%, Nancy 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Nancy's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Nancy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.