Guingamp 2-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Dunkerque meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 3W 2D 3L from 8 Ligue 2 appearances (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dunkerque have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 61% versus Dunkerque 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | Dunkerque 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.74 xG and Dunkerque 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.292 / defence 1.497 | Dunkerque attack 0.801 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.038. Guingamp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Guingamp games / 18 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Dunkerque 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Dunkerque 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 88% | Dunkerque 50% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Dunkerque 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Guingamp 1.74 / Dunkerque 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.292 / def 1.497 | Dunkerque attack 0.801 / def 1.387 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dunkerque xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dunkerque kick off?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Guingamp 2 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Guingamp vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dunkerque part of?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 49% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Guingamp and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.29) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.80x) against Guingamp's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.25
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.99
1.25
Dunkerque xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
5%
20.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.25 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 6D 7L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Guingamp against 0.89 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.78 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 4W 4D 10L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Dunkerque away?
Guingamp's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.38 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
3
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
From 9 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Dunkerque have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Guingamp, 50% for Dunkerque — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Guingamp and 62% for Dunkerque. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Guingamp's games and 50% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Guingamp's matches and 62% of Dunkerque's.
Do Guingamp and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Dunkerque 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Dunkerque 2-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.74 xG and Dunkerque 1.25 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.29 / defence 1.50 against Dunkerque attack 0.80 / defence 1.39, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Dunkerque 27%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Dunkerque 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.17 PPG, Dunkerque 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.