Guingamp vs Clermont Foot – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 40%, yet in-form Clermont Foot provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Clermont Foot are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guingamp, 3 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Clermont Foot trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Clermont Foot 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 55% | Clermont Foot 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.53 xG and Clermont Foot 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.097 / defence 1.075 | Clermont Foot attack 1.016 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 38 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 32%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Clermont Foot 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Clermont Foot (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 30% | Clermont Foot 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Guingamp 1.53 / Clermont Foot 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.097 / def 1.075 | Clermont Foot attack 1.016 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Clermont Foot xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Guingamp vs Clermont Foot is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot part of?
Guingamp vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 40% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Guingamp and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 3W.
What form are Guingamp and Clermont Foot in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.60
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.90
1.37
Clermont Foot xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
7%
14.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.37 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 11W 11D 16L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot's form line: 9W 13D 16L from 38 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.16 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 4D 10L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.05 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 13D 16L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Clermont Foot away?
Guingamp's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.44 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Clermont Foot runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Clermont Foot won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 33%, Clermont Foot 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Guingamp) and 56% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Clermont Foot in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Guingamp's recent matches and 56% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Guingamp's recent games and 56% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.