Guingamp 1-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.20 PPG across 5 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 1L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajaccio (all games): 2W 2D 0L across 4 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.75. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Ajaccio are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Ajaccio 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guingamp 25% | Ajaccio 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.72 xG and Ajaccio 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.848 / defence 1.258 | Ajaccio attack 0.829 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 0.740 / away 1.167. Data: 5 Guingamp games / 4 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 18% | Draw 37% | Ajaccio 45%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 5.56 | Draw 2.70 | Ajaccio 2.22. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajaccio at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Ajaccio 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 18% | Draw 37% | Ajaccio 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Guingamp 0.72 / Ajaccio 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.848 / def 1.258 | Ajaccio attack 0.829 / def 1.144 | league avg home 0.740 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ajaccio xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Ajaccio kick off?
Guingamp vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Guingamp 1 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Guingamp vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Ajaccio part of?
Guingamp vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 18% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 45% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Guingamp and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Ajaccio in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.85) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.83x) against Guingamp's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
18%
5.41
37%
2.72
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.94
1.22
Ajaccio xG
5.41
18%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
5%
18.27
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 17.6 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.22 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Guingamp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Guingamp or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Guingamp go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Ajaccio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Ajaccio 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Ajaccio?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, Ajaccio 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Guingamp) and 50% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 50%; Guingamp have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 50% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Guingamp's recent games and 50% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Ajaccio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 6, as Guingamp and Ajaccio drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 0.72 xG and Ajaccio 1.22 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.85 / defence 1.26 against Ajaccio attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 18% | Draw 37% | Ajaccio 45%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 25%, Ajaccio 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ajaccio's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.