Grenoble 2-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grenoble at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grenoble and Quevilly meet at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Grenoble (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grenoble have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade des Alpes — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Grenoble. A 0.70 PPG lead over Quevilly (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grenoble lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Grenoble winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Grenoble — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 52% of games.
Quevilly — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 23% versus Quevilly 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grenoble 25% | Quevilly 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.14 xG and Quevilly 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.777 / defence 0.756 | Quevilly attack 1.056 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.034. Grenoble's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Grenoble's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Grenoble games / 44 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 42% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 26%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Quevilly 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 30% | Quevilly 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 42% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Grenoble 1.14 / Quevilly 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.777 / def 0.756 | Quevilly attack 1.056 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Quevilly xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Quevilly kick off?
Grenoble vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Grenoble 2 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Grenoble vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Quevilly part of?
Grenoble vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 42% chance of winning, Quevilly a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Grenoble and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Quevilly?
Record (4 meetings): Grenoble 2W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 2W.
What form are Grenoble and Quevilly in?
Grenoble (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Quevilly (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.78x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (1.06x) against Grenoble's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.11
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Grenoble xG
Total xG
1.96
0.82
Quevilly xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.82 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Grenoble come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 13D 15L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (12W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Grenoble against 1.18 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Grenoble's home form reads 10W 7D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grenoble are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Quevilly away?
Grenoble's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.68 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Quevilly in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Grenoble
1
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 3, Quevilly have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Quevilly 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Quevilly?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 32% (Grenoble) and 32% (Quevilly) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Grenoble and 36% for Quevilly.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Quevilly in 36%; Grenoble have failed to score in 41% of games; Quevilly in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Grenoble's recent matches and 32% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Grenoble's recent games and 36% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Quevilly 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Quevilly 2-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.14 xG and Quevilly 0.82 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Grenoble beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.78 / defence 0.76 against Quevilly attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 42% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 26%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 25%, Quevilly 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.39 PPG, Quevilly 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.