Grenoble 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Grenoble at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade des Alpes to face Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Grenoble's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade des Alpes this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Grenoble's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of PAU's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Grenoble, 0 for PAU and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Grenoble half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 28% versus PAU 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grenoble 32% | PAU 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.88 xG and PAU 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.793 / defence 0.850 | PAU attack 0.886 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.061. Grenoble's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Grenoble games / 60 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 35% | Draw 34% | PAU 31%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | PAU 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — PAU's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 30% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 35% | Draw 34% | PAU 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Grenoble 0.88 / PAU 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.793 / def 0.850 | PAU attack 0.886 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.80
PAU xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs PAU kick off?
Grenoble vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs PAU?
Grenoble 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Grenoble vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs PAU part of?
Grenoble vs PAU is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 35% chance of winning, PAU a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Grenoble and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and PAU?
Record (3 meetings): Grenoble 2W | Draws 1 | PAU 0W.
What form are Grenoble and PAU in?
Grenoble (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (0.79) and PAU's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.89x) against Grenoble's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
35%
2.84
34%
2.92
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Grenoble xG
Total xG
1.68
0.80
PAU xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 14.9 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Grenoble and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.80 for PAU, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble's recent record stands at 22W 14D 24L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 25L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Grenoble against 1.25 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Grenoble have managed 13W 7D 10L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 7W 8D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and PAU in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or PAU away?
Grenoble's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.53 PPG; PAU away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Grenoble or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, PAU in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Grenoble
5
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 2, PAU have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when PAU 2-2 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
PAU see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 37%, PAU 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Grenoble) and 40% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 33% of games; PAU in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Grenoble's recent matches and 50% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Grenoble's recent games and 40% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Grenoble and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 23, as Grenoble and PAU drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.88 xG and PAU 0.80 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against PAU attack 0.89 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 35% | Draw 34% | PAU 31%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 32%, PAU 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.33 PPG, PAU 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.