Grenoble 0-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Guingamp at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Grenoble, 0 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2023, ended 4–2 with Grenoble winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Grenoble in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 29% versus Guingamp 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grenoble 31% | Guingamp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.05 xG and Guingamp 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.854 / defence 0.851 | Guingamp attack 0.947 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.148. Data: 75 Grenoble games / 75 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 38% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 31%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Guingamp 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 40% | Guingamp 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 38% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Grenoble 1.05 / Guingamp 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.854 / def 0.851 | Guingamp attack 0.947 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Guingamp xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Guingamp kick off?
Grenoble vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Grenoble 0 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Grenoble vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Guingamp part of?
Grenoble vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 38% chance of winning, Guingamp a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Grenoble and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Grenoble 1W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (0.85) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
38%
2.65
31%
3.19
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Grenoble xG
Total xG
1.98
0.93
Guingamp xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.93 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grenoble come into this having played 75 games, going 26W 17D 32L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.47 PPG from 75 outings (29W 23D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.27 PPG, Guingamp on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Grenoble's home form reads 16W 10D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.41 points per game from 37 outings (13W 13D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Grenoble are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.35 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Guingamp in 60%.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 26W 17D 32L in their last 75 games (1.27 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 29W 23D 23L in their last 75 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Guingamp away?
Grenoble's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.57 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Guingamp in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grenoble and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grenoble's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Grenoble
7
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 40%, Guingamp 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Grenoble) and 40% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 32% of games; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Grenoble's recent matches and 54% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Grenoble's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Guingamp tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Grenoble 0-2 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.05 xG and Guingamp 0.93 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Guingamp outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.85 / defence 0.85 against Guingamp attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 38% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 31%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 31%, Guingamp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.27 PPG, Guingamp 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.