Grenoble 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Guingamp at Stade Jean Laville in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 0W 2D 0L from 2 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.75 xG and Guingamp 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.819 / defence 1.455 | Guingamp attack 0.690 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.341. Data: 2 Grenoble games / 2 Guingamp games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Grenoble 17% | Draw 36% | Guingamp 47%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 5.88 | Draw 2.78 | Guingamp 2.13. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Jean Laville • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 17% | Draw 36% | Guingamp 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Grenoble 0.75 / Guingamp 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.819 / def 1.455 | Guingamp attack 0.690 / def 1.019 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Guingamp xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Guingamp kick off?
Grenoble vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade Jean Laville.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Grenoble 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Grenoble vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Laville.
What competition is Grenoble vs Guingamp part of?
Grenoble vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 17% chance of winning, Guingamp a 47% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Grenoble and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in?
Grenoble (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (0.82) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
17%
5.83
36%
2.80
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.10
1.35
Guingamp xG
5.83
17%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
4%
22.39
22%
4.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.35 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grenoble come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Grenoble are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Guingamp in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Grenoble or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Guingamp in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grenoble and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grenoble's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Grenoble
7
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Grenoble's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Grenoble's recent games and 0% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Guingamp tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Jean Laville, Regular Season - 3, as Grenoble and Guingamp drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.75 xG and Guingamp 1.35 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.82 / defence 1.46 against Guingamp attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 17% | Draw 36% | Guingamp 47%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 100%, Guingamp 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Grenoble conceded 0 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.