Dijon 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 36%, yet in-form Rodez provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dijon vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 0W 0D 2L across 2 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Rodez are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.34 xG and Rodez 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.976 / defence 1.330 | Rodez attack 0.681 / defence 1.528. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.341. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.528 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Dijon games / 2 Rodez games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dijon 36% | Draw 34% | Rodez 30%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Rodez 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dijon are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rodez (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 36% | Draw 34% | Rodez 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Dijon 1.34 / Rodez 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.976 / def 1.330 | Rodez attack 0.681 / def 1.528 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Dijon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Rodez xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Rodez kick off?
Dijon vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Rodez?
Dijon 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Dijon vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Rodez part of?
Dijon vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 36% chance of winning, Rodez a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dijon and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Rodez in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Rodez (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dijon's attack at 0.98x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.68x) against Dijon's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
36%
2.78
34%
2.93
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.56
1.21
Rodez xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dijon and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dijon and 1.21 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dijon come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Rodez in 0%.
Defensively: Rodez in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Rodez in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Rodez have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Dijon or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rodez in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dijon
1
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 2, Rodez have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Dijon 1-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Rodez?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Dijon's recent matches and 0% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Dijon's matches and 50% of Rodez's.
Do Dijon and Rodez tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rodez in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dijon and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon and Rodez finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.34 xG and Rodez 1.21 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.98 / defence 1.33 against Rodez attack 0.68 / defence 1.53, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 36% | Draw 34% | Rodez 30%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 100%, Rodez 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dijon conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.