Dijon 1-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Paris FC travel to Stade Gaston-Gérard to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dijon have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Gaston-Gérard — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Gaston-Gérard. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Dijon) versus 1.70 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dijon, 2 for Paris FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Paris FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dijon in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Paris FC in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 50% versus Paris FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 50% | Paris FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.34 xG and Paris FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.944 / defence 0.777 | Paris FC attack 1.064 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.145. Dijon's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 Dijon games / 74 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 46% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Paris FC 3.85. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 20% | Paris FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 46% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Dijon 1.34 / Paris FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.944 / def 0.777 | Paris FC attack 1.064 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Dijon (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Paris FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Paris FC kick off?
Dijon vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Paris FC?
Dijon 1 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Dijon vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Paris FC part of?
Dijon vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 46% chance of winning, Paris FC a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dijon and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Paris FC?
Record (3 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 2W.
What form are Dijon and Paris FC in?
Dijon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.94) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.53
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.29
0.95
Paris FC xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dijon and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dijon and 0.95 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 23W 19D 32L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Paris FC's form line: 33W 19D 22L from 74 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Paris FC are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.50 PPG from 36 outings (15W 9D 12L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 15W 9D 12L from 36 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dijon are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 23W 19D 32L in their last 74 games (1.19 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 33W 19D 22L in their last 74 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Paris FC away?
Dijon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.50 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Dijon or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Paris FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dijon and Paris FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dijon's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dijon
2
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Paris FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Paris FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Dijon 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 39%, Paris FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Dijon) and 42% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Paris FC in 33%; Dijon have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Dijon's recent matches and 53% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Dijon's recent games and 42% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Paris FC tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dijon and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon and Paris FC finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.34 xG and Paris FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.94 / defence 0.78 against Paris FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 46% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 26%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 50%, Paris FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Paris FC's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.