Dijon 3-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dijon have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Gaston-Gérard this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Amiens (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Amiens have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dijon, 1 for Amiens and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Amiens winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 50% versus Amiens 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 49% | Amiens 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.23 xG and Amiens 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.825 / defence 0.862 | Amiens attack 0.919 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.110. Data: 72 Dijon games / 72 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 44% | Draw 30% | Amiens 26%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Amiens 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 30% | Amiens 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 44% | Draw 30% | Amiens 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Dijon 1.23 / Amiens 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.825 / def 0.862 | Amiens attack 0.919 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Dijon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Amiens xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Amiens kick off?
Dijon vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Amiens?
Dijon 3 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Dijon vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Amiens part of?
Dijon vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 44% chance of winning, Amiens a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dijon and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Amiens?
Record (3 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 1 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Dijon and Amiens in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dijon's attack at 0.82x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.92x) against Dijon's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.36
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.11
0.88
Amiens xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dijon and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Dijon and 0.88 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 21W 19D 32L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Amiens's form line: 21W 25D 26L from 72 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Dijon against 1.22 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.42 PPG from 36 outings (14W 9D 13L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 6W 16D 14L from 36 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.08 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Amiens in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 21W 19D 32L in their last 72 games (1.14 PPG), while Amiens have gone 21W 25D 26L in their last 72 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Amiens away?
Dijon's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.42 PPG; Amiens away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Dijon or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Amiens in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dijon won 3-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dijon
1
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 2, Amiens have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Dijon 3-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Amiens?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 42%, Amiens 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Dijon) and 36% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dijon have failed to score in 33% of games; Amiens in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Dijon's recent matches and 58% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Dijon's recent games and 36% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Amiens tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Amiens in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dijon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Amiens 3-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.23 xG and Amiens 0.88 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.82 / defence 0.86 against Amiens attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 44% | Draw 30% | Amiens 26%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 49%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Amiens's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.14 PPG, Amiens 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.