Caen 2-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Caen (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 2W 1D 6L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 0.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Guingamp have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Caen, 1.10 for Guingamp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Caen — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 47% versus Guingamp 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 41% | Guingamp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.01 xG and Guingamp 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.836 / defence 1.344 | Guingamp attack 0.836 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.974. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Caen games / 17 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 33% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 37%. Fair-value odds: Caen 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Caen 44% | Guingamp 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 33% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Caen 1.01 / Guingamp 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.836 / def 1.344 | Guingamp attack 0.836 / def 1.268 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Guingamp xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Guingamp kick off?
Caen vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Caen 2 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Caen vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Guingamp part of?
Caen vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 33% chance of winning, Guingamp a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Caen and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Caen and Guingamp in?
Caen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (0.84) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.84x) against Caen's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.34
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Caen xG
Total xG
2.10
1.09
Guingamp xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Caen and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Caen and 1.09 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Caen have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 6D 7L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 5W 6D 6L from 17 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Caen against 1.24 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Caen have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.24 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 0.78 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Guingamp have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Caen won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Caen
0
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 3, Guingamp have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Caen 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 44%, Guingamp 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Caen) and 44% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 33%; Caen have failed to score in 33% of games; Guingamp in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Caen's recent matches and 44% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Caen's recent games and 44% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Guingamp tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Guingamp 2-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.01 xG and Guingamp 1.09 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Guingamp attack 0.84 / defence 1.27, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 33% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 37%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Caen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 41%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.06 PPG, Guingamp 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.