Caen 2-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Caen welcome Bastia to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen's home record at Stade Michel d'Ornano: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Caen at 1.20 PPG versus Bastia's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Caen have won 0, Bastia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Caen in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bastia in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 44% versus Bastia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Caen 40% | Bastia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.51 xG and Bastia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.119 / defence 1.088 | Bastia attack 1.024 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 0.975. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Caen games / 25 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 28% | Bastia 26%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 3.85. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Caen 30% | Bastia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 28% | Bastia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Caen 1.51 / Bastia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.119 / def 1.088 | Bastia attack 1.024 / def 1.340 | league avg home 1.010 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Caen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Bastia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Bastia kick off?
Caen vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Bastia?
Caen 2 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Caen vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Bastia part of?
Caen vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 46% chance of winning, Bastia a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Caen and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Caen 0W | Draws 1 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Caen and Bastia in?
Caen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Bastia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Caen's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.60
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Caen xG
Total xG
2.60
1.09
Bastia xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Caen and 1.09 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Caen come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 8D 10L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (6W 11D 8L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.16 PPG, Bastia on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Caen's home form reads 4W 1D 7L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (3W 1D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Bastia in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Bastia have gone 6W 11D 8L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Bastia away?
Caen's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.08 PPG; Bastia away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Caen or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Caen's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Caen
1
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 5, Bastia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Bastia 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Bastia?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 33%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Caen) and 50% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Caen have failed to score in 33% of games; Bastia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Caen's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Caen's recent games and 50% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Bastia tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bastia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Caen edge out Bastia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Bastia 2-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.51 xG and Bastia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Bastia attack 1.02 / defence 1.34, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 46% | Draw 28% | Bastia 26%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 40%, Bastia 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.16 PPG, Bastia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.