Boulogne 1-0 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Montpellier at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Montpellier travel to Stade de la Libération to take on Boulogne. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Boulogne have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Libération, Boulogne have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Montpellier — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Boulogne 1.00 PPG, Montpellier 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Boulogne have won 1, Montpellier 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Boulogne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Boulogne trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Montpellier trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 60% versus Montpellier 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 55% | Montpellier 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.17 xG and Montpellier 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.958 / defence 1.506 | Montpellier attack 0.764 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.181. Data: 18 Boulogne games / 18 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 32% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 41%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Montpellier 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Montpellier are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Boulogne 70% | Montpellier 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 32% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Boulogne 1.17 / Montpellier 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.958 / def 1.506 | Montpellier attack 0.764 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Montpellier xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Montpellier kick off?
Boulogne vs Montpellier kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Montpellier?
Boulogne 1 - 0 Montpellier.
Where is Boulogne vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Montpellier part of?
Boulogne vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 32% chance of winning, Montpellier a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Boulogne and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Montpellier?
Record (1 meetings): Boulogne 1W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 0W.
What form are Boulogne and Montpellier in?
Boulogne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Montpellier (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Boulogne's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.75
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.53
1.36
Montpellier xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.36 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Boulogne's recent record stands at 5W 4D 11L from 20 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 9L across 20 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boulogne on 0.95 PPG, Montpellier on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Boulogne have managed 2W 1D 6L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Montpellier come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Boulogne are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boulogne have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Montpellier away?
Montpellier's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.78 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Boulogne
1
Draws
0
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Montpellier?
From 3 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 2, Montpellier have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Montpellier 0-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Montpellier?
Boulogne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 67%, Montpellier 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Boulogne) and 22% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Boulogne's recent matches and 33% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 78% of Boulogne's recent games and 22% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boulogne and Montpellier tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boulogne defy the odds to beat Montpellier 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.17 xG and Montpellier 1.36 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.96 / defence 1.51 against Montpellier attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 32% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 41%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 55%, Montpellier 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Montpellier's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boulogne 0.95 PPG, Montpellier 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.