Boulogne 1-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Annecy travel to Stade de la Libération to take on Boulogne. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Boulogne — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Boulogne's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade de la Libération this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Annecy away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Boulogne at 1.30 PPG versus Annecy's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Boulogne, 0 for Annecy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Boulogne in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 50% versus Annecy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 47% | Annecy 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.30 xG and Annecy 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.888 / defence 1.460 | Annecy attack 1.174 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.228. Annecy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Boulogne games / 66 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 22% | Draw 24% | Annecy 54%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Annecy 1.85. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: Boulogne 60% | Annecy 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 22% | Draw 24% | Annecy 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Boulogne 1.30 / Annecy 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.888 / def 1.460 | Annecy attack 1.174 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Annecy (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Annecy xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Annecy kick off?
Boulogne vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Annecy?
Boulogne 1 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Boulogne vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Annecy part of?
Boulogne vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 22% chance of winning, Annecy a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Boulogne and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Boulogne and Annecy in?
Boulogne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Annecy (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 0.89x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
22%
4.60
24%
4.16
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Boulogne xG
Total xG
3.41
2.10
Annecy xG
4.60
22%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
12%
8.21
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
3%
37.77
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Boulogne and 2.10 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Boulogne come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 9D 15L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (15W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boulogne on 1.15 PPG, Annecy on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Boulogne's home form reads 4W 3D 10L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (7W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Boulogne are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.50 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Annecy in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.88 PPG; Annecy away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Annecy in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boulogne and Annecy runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Boulogne
1
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Annecy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Boulogne 1-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 59%, Annecy 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Boulogne and 59% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Boulogne have failed to score in 29% of games; Annecy in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Boulogne's recent matches and 41% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Boulogne's matches and 59% of Annecy's.
Do Boulogne and Annecy tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Annecy in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Boulogne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Boulogne 1-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.30 xG and Annecy 2.10 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.89 / defence 1.46 against Annecy attack 1.17 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 22% | Draw 24% | Annecy 54%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 47%, Annecy 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.15 PPG, Annecy 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.