Bordeaux 4-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 64% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bordeaux face Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Matmut-Atlantique plays host to Bordeaux versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2 (matchday 36). Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bordeaux have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bordeaux at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bordeaux are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ajaccio (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Ajaccio's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Bordeaux, 0 for Ajaccio and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2023, ended Bordeaux 0–0 Ajaccio — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Ajaccio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 43% versus Ajaccio 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 43% | Ajaccio 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.75 xG and Ajaccio 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.162 / defence 0.962 | Ajaccio attack 0.585 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.139. Ajaccio's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bordeaux's projected output up. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.585 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 72 games and Ajaccio's last 35.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 64% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 13%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 1.56 | Draw 4.32 | Ajaccio 7.78. The model has a clear lean to Bordeaux (64%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bordeaux's last 10 home games and Ajaccio's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bordeaux 30% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 36 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 64% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Bordeaux 1.75 / Ajaccio 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.162 / def 0.962 | Ajaccio attack 0.585 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Ajaccio xG
39%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Ajaccio kick off?
Bordeaux vs Ajaccio kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Ajaccio?
Bordeaux 4 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Bordeaux vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Ajaccio part of?
Bordeaux vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 36) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 64% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bordeaux and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Bordeaux vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.58x) against Bordeaux's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 72 games and Ajaccio's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
64%
1.56
23%
4.32
13%
7.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.40
0.64
Ajaccio xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
7.78
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
2%
44.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.64 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 32W 18D 22L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Ajaccio's form line: 19W 15D 38L from 72 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Bordeaux are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajaccio.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 35 home games (20W 9D 6L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 5W 6D 24L from their last 35 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bordeaux are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.78 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
Bordeaux (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
❓ Bordeaux vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 32W 18D 22L in their last 72 games (1.58 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 19W 15D 38L in their last 72 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Ajaccio away?
Bordeaux's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.97 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Bordeaux and Ajaccio, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
1
Draws
0
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Ajaccio?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 1, Ajaccio have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2024: Bordeaux 4-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Ajaccio?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 40%, Ajaccio 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bordeaux) and 51% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Ajaccio in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 37% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bordeaux's recent games and 51% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 69% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bordeaux run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Ajaccio 4-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.75 xG and Ajaccio 0.64 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Ajaccio attack 0.58 / defence 1.25, drawn from 72/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 64% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 13%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 43%, Ajaccio 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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