Bastia 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Armand-Césari plays host to Bastia versus Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Bastia (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Le Havre are 0.60 PPG clear of Bastia in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 60% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 20% | Le Havre 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.71 xG and Le Havre 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.005 / defence 1.108 | Le Havre attack 0.835 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 0.740 / away 1.167. Data: 5 Bastia games / 5 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 20% | Draw 39% | Le Havre 41%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 5.00 | Draw 2.56 | Le Havre 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 60% | Le Havre 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 20% | Draw 39% | Le Havre 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Bastia 0.71 / Le Havre 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.005 / def 1.108 | Le Havre attack 0.835 / def 0.949 | league avg home 0.740 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Le Havre xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Le Havre kick off?
Bastia vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Le Havre?
Bastia 0 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Bastia vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Le Havre part of?
Bastia vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 20% chance of winning, Le Havre a 41% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bastia and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bastia and Le Havre in?
Bastia (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bastia's attack at 1.00x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.83x) against Bastia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
20%
4.91
39%
2.57
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.79
1.08
Le Havre xG
4.91
20%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
7%
14.47
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 18.1 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Bastia and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Bastia and 1.08 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Bastia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bastia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Le Havre in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Bastia or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Le Havre in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bastia
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Bastia 1-1 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 60%, Le Havre 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Bastia and 40% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 60%; Bastia have failed to score in 40% of games; Le Havre in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bastia's recent matches and 40% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Bastia's recent games and 40% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Le Havre tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Le Havre finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.71 xG and Le Havre 1.08 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Le Havre attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 20% | Draw 39% | Le Havre 41%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 20%, Le Havre 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bastia managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.