Auxerre 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Toulouse make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Toulouse (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Auxerre, 2.30 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Auxerre 0W, Toulouse 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–6 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 55% versus Toulouse 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 55% | Toulouse 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.42 xG and Toulouse 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.181 / defence 1.385 | Toulouse attack 1.168 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 0.885. Toulouse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Auxerre games / 29 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 37% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 37%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Toulouse 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 70% | Toulouse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 37% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Auxerre 1.42 / Toulouse 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.181 / def 1.385 | Toulouse attack 1.168 / def 1.206 | league avg home 0.999 / away 0.885 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Toulouse xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Toulouse kick off?
Auxerre vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Auxerre 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Auxerre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Toulouse part of?
Auxerre vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 37% chance of winning, Toulouse a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Toulouse in?
Auxerre (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Toulouse (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.17x) against Auxerre's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
37%
2.71
26%
3.87
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.86
1.43
Toulouse xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.43 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 29 games, going 15W 9D 5L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 2.07 PPG from 29 outings (17W 9D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Auxerre against 2.07 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.86 points per game from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.31 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Toulouse in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 15W 9D 5L in their last 29 games (1.86 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 17W 9D 3L in their last 29 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.79 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Toulouse in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 6-0 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Toulouse have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 57%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Auxerre) and 50% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Toulouse in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Auxerre's matches and 50% of Toulouse's.
Do Auxerre and Toulouse tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Auxerre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Auxerre 1-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.42 xG and Toulouse 1.43 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.18 / defence 1.39 against Toulouse attack 1.17 / defence 1.21, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 37% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 37%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Toulouse 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.86 PPG, Toulouse 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.