Auxerre 2-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estac Troyes make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Monday 8 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Auxerre have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Estac Troyes have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Auxerre. A 0.50 PPG lead over Estac Troyes (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Auxerre edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Auxerre 2–1 Estac Troyes — a Auxerre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 59% and Estac Troyes 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 48% | Estac Troyes 57%). Note also that Estac Troyes surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Auxerre recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.40 xG and Estac Troyes 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.065 / defence 0.906 | Estac Troyes attack 0.631 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.175. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.631 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Data: built from Auxerre's last 30 games and Estac Troyes's last 30.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 53% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 17%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.88 | Draw 3.33 | Estac Troyes 6.00. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Monday 8 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 53% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Auxerre 1.40 / Estac Troyes 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.065 / def 0.906 | Estac Troyes attack 0.631 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Estac Troyes xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 8 April 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Auxerre 2 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Auxerre vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Estac Troyes part of?
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 53% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Auxerre and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Auxerre vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.63x) against Auxerre's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 30 games and Estac Troyes's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
53%
1.88
30%
3.33
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.07
0.67
Estac Troyes xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
4%
24.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.67 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 24W 21D 23L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 12W 23D 33L from 68 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 34 home games (13W 12D 9L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 10D 20L from their last 34 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.18 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 65%.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Auxerre (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Auxerre vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 24W 21D 23L in their last 68 games (1.37 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 12W 23D 33L in their last 68 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Estac Troyes away?
Auxerre's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.50 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 8 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Auxerre have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Auxerre
1
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Estac Troyes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 April 2024: Auxerre 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Estac Troyes?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 56%, Estac Troyes 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Auxerre) and 62% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 26% of games; Estac Troyes in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Estac Troyes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Auxerre's games and 62% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Auxerre and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Auxerre's recent games and 62% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Auxerre's recent matches and 71% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Estac Troyes 2-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.40 xG and Estac Troyes 0.67 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Estac Troyes attack 0.63 / defence 1.13, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 53% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 17%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 48%, Estac Troyes 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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