Auxerre 1-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Dunkerque meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season.
Dunkerque have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dunkerque have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Auxerre's favour (2.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Dunkerque and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 60% versus Dunkerque 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Dunkerque 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.64 xG and Dunkerque 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.176 / defence 1.201 | Dunkerque attack 0.669 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.038. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.482 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Auxerre games / 35 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 55% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 18%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Dunkerque 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 80% | Dunkerque 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 55% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Auxerre 1.64 / Dunkerque 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.176 / def 1.201 | Dunkerque attack 0.669 / def 1.482 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Dunkerque xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Dunkerque kick off?
Auxerre vs Dunkerque kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Auxerre vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Dunkerque part of?
Auxerre vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 55% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Auxerre and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Dunkerque in?
Auxerre (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.67x) against Auxerre's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
55%
1.80
26%
3.79
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.47
0.83
Dunkerque xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
4%
28.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.83 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 35 games, going 18W 11D 6L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 0.89 PPG from 35 outings (8W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 0.59 points per game from 17 outings (3W 1D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.74 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 18W 11D 6L in their last 35 games (1.86 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 8W 7D 20L in their last 35 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Dunkerque away?
Auxerre's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.82 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Auxerre
0
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Dunkerque?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Dunkerque have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2024, when Dunkerque 1-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Dunkerque?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 59%, Dunkerque 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Auxerre) and 53% (Dunkerque). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dunkerque in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Auxerre's recent matches and 47% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Auxerre's matches and 53% of Dunkerque's.
Do Auxerre and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Dunkerque 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Dunkerque 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.64 xG and Dunkerque 0.83 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.18 / defence 1.20 against Dunkerque attack 0.67 / defence 1.48, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 55% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 18%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Dunkerque 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dunkerque's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.