Annecy 1-0 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Annecy at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RED Star FC 93 make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 5W 1D 4L at Parc des Sports — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 2W 1D 4L across 7 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Annecy's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 57% versus RED Star FC 93 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 57% | RED Star FC 93 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.92 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.033 / defence 1.096 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.050 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.120. RED Star FC 93 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Annecy games / 7 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 22% | RED Star FC 93 26%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | RED Star FC 93 3.85. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 50% | RED Star FC 93 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 22% | RED Star FC 93 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Annecy 1.92 / RED Star FC 93 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.033 / def 1.096 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.050 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Annecy (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.29
RED Star FC 93 xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Annecy 1 - 0 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 52% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Annecy and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and RED Star FC 93 in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.14 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.03x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RED Star FC 93's attack (1.05x) against Annecy's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.50
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Annecy xG
Total xG
3.21
1.29
RED Star FC 93 xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
4%
26.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Annecy and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Annecy and 1.29 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 3W 3D 1L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Annecy are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RED Star FC 93.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Annecy have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.14 scored and 2.14 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Annecy's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 2.00 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Annecy or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RED Star FC 93 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Annecy
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Annecy 2-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and RED Star FC 93?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Annecy, 100% for RED Star FC 93 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Annecy and 67% for RED Star FC 93. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Annecy's games and 100% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Annecy's matches and 67% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do Annecy and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out RED Star FC 93 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat RED Star FC 93 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.92 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.29 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy fell 0.9 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.05 / defence 1.30, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 52% | Draw 22% | RED Star FC 93 26%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 57%, RED Star FC 93 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.