Annecy 5-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Annecy welcome PAU to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 5W 3D 2L at Parc des Sports — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
PAU's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.50 PPG, PAU 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Annecy, 3 for PAU and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
PAU trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 43% | PAU 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.37 xG and PAU 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.965 / defence 0.832 | PAU attack 1.032 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.174. Data: 65 Annecy games / 65 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 43% | Draw 31% | PAU 26%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | PAU 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | PAU 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 43% | Draw 31% | PAU 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Annecy 1.37 / PAU 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.965 / def 0.832 | PAU attack 1.032 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Annecy (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.01
PAU xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs PAU kick off?
Annecy vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs PAU?
Annecy 5 - 1 PAU.
Where is Annecy vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs PAU part of?
Annecy vs PAU is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 43% chance of winning, PAU a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Annecy and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
Record (7 meetings): Annecy 2W | Draws 2 | PAU 3W.
What form are Annecy and PAU in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.96) and PAU's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.25
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.38
1.01
PAU xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Annecy and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Annecy and 1.01 for PAU, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy come into this having played 65 games, going 27W 16D 22L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.34 PPG from 65 outings (22W 21D 22L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.49 PPG, PAU on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Annecy's home form reads 15W 10D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.19 points per game from 32 outings (9W 11D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.26 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and PAU in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 27W 16D 22L in their last 65 games (1.49 PPG), while PAU have gone 22W 21D 22L in their last 65 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or PAU away?
Annecy's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.72 PPG; PAU away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Annecy or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, PAU in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and PAU runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Annecy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Annecy
2
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
From 9 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, PAU have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when PAU 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and PAU?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 47%, PAU 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Annecy) and 59% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Annecy's recent matches and 56% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Annecy's recent games and 59% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and PAU tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, PAU in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 5-1 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat PAU 5-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.37 xG and PAU 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against PAU attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 43% | Draw 31% | PAU 26%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 43%, PAU 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.49 PPG, PAU 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.