Annecy 1-2 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Niort.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Niort travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Niort — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Niort's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.09 xG and Niort 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Niort attack 0.977 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.083. Data: built from Annecy's last 0 games and Niort's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 28% | Niort 39%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.04 | Draw 3.54 | Niort 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Niort at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Annecy 0 games, Niort 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 1 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 30 July 2022 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 28% | Niort 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Annecy 1.09 / Niort 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Niort attack 0.977 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Niort (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Niort xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Niort FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Niort kick off?
Annecy vs Niort kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Niort?
Annecy 1 - 2 Niort.
Where is Annecy vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Niort part of?
Annecy vs Niort is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 1) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 33% chance of winning, Niort a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Annecy and Niort will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Annecy vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.85) and Niort's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 0 games and Niort's last 38, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
33%
3.04
28%
3.54
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.31
1.22
Niort xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Niort Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Annecy and 1.22 for Niort, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Pre-Season
Niort
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Annecy (Home) vs Niort (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Pre-Season
Niort
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 20 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Niort H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Niort?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 0, Niort have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Annecy and Niort last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 May 2023: Niort 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Niort?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Niort edge out Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.09 xG and Niort 1.22 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Niort attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 28% | Niort 39%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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