Annecy 0-0 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nimes make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 30 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 3W 1D 4L from 8 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Nimes have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Annecy. A 0.60 PPG lead over Nimes (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Nimes — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 25% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 31% | Nimes 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.21 xG and Nimes 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.818 / defence 1.156 | Nimes attack 1.002 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.990. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Annecy games / 54 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 37% | Draw 28% | Nimes 35%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Nimes 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 38% | Nimes 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 37% | Draw 28% | Nimes 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Annecy 1.21 / Nimes 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.818 / def 1.156 | Nimes attack 1.002 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Annecy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Nimes xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Nimes kick off?
Annecy vs Nimes kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Nimes?
Annecy 0 - 0 Nimes.
Where is Annecy vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Nimes part of?
Annecy vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 37% chance of winning, Nimes a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Annecy and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Nimes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Nimes in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.82) and Nimes's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nimes's attack (1.00x) against Annecy's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.57
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.35
1.15
Nimes xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Annecy and 1.15 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy's recent record stands at 5W 4D 7L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 9L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Annecy against 0.94 for Nimes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nimes's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nimes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 0.94 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Nimes in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Nimes have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Nimes away?
Annecy's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.25 PPG; Nimes away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Annecy or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nimes in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Nimes?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Nimes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Nimes 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Nimes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 38%, Nimes 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Annecy) and 62% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Annecy have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Nimes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Annecy's games and 88% of Nimes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Annecy's recent games and 62% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Nimes tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nimes in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Nimes finished level at 0-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.21 xG and Nimes 1.15 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Nimes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Nimes attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 37% | Draw 28% | Nimes 35%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 31%, Nimes 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nimes's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.19 PPG, Nimes 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.