Annecy 1-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Caen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Monday 17 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Caen (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Caen have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Annecy's favour (1.40 vs 0.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Annecy, 2 for Caen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 50% versus Caen 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 52% | Caen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.59 xG and Caen 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.943 / defence 1.069 | Caen attack 0.879 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.097. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Annecy games / 60 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 50% | Draw 25% | Caen 25%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Caen 4.00. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 20% | Caen 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Monday 17 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 50% | Draw 25% | Caen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Annecy 1.59 / Caen 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.943 / def 1.069 | Caen attack 0.879 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Annecy (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Caen xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Caen kick off?
Annecy vs Caen kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 17 February 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Caen?
Annecy 1 - 0 Caen.
Where is Annecy vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Caen part of?
Annecy vs Caen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 50% chance of winning, Caen a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Annecy and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Caen?
Record (5 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 2 | Caen 2W.
What form are Annecy and Caen in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Caen (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.94x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Caen's attack (0.88x) against Annecy's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
50%
1.98
25%
3.99
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.62
1.03
Caen xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
5%
19.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Annecy and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Annecy and 1.03 for Caen, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 16D 22L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Caen sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (21W 10D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Annecy against 1.22 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Annecy's home form reads 11W 7D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Caen have taken 0.90 points per game from 29 outings (7W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.17 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Caen in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Caen have gone 21W 10D 29L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Caen away?
Annecy's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.38 PPG; Caen away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Annecy or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Caen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Caen?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Caen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Annecy 1-0 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 45%, Caen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Annecy) and 69% (Caen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 28% of games; Caen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Annecy's recent matches and 62% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Annecy's matches and 69% of Caen's.
Do Annecy and Caen tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Caen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Caen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Caen 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.59 xG and Caen 1.03 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Caen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Caen attack 0.88 / defence 1.35, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 50% | Draw 25% | Caen 25%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 52%, Caen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Caen's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.37 PPG, Caen 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.