Amiens 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAU at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs PAU encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Amiens and PAU meet at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Amiens's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Amiens's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

PAU have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, PAU have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

PAU arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Amiens, 4 for PAU and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Dec 2025, ended Amiens 2–1 PAU — a Amiens win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

PAU half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 54% | PAU 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.66 xG and PAU 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.073 / defence 1.549 | PAU attack 1.127 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.141. PAU's defence rating of 1.327 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Amiens's projected output up. Amiens's defence rating of 1.549 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAU's projected output up. Data: built from Amiens's last 63 games and PAU's last 63.

Result probabilities: Amiens 32% | Draw 24% | PAU 45%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.17 | Draw 4.22 | PAU 2.24. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Amiens's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 70% (last 10 home games) | PAU 40% (last 10 away games).

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