Amiens 1-2 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Metz (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Amiens face Metz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Metz at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Amiens — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Amiens's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Amiens are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Metz have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Metz away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Metz — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Metz have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Amiens. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Amiens 2–3 Metz — a Metz win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Metz have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Metz in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 43% versus Metz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Metz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.85 xG and Metz 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.896 / defence 1.247 | Metz attack 0.951 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.059. Metz bring a tight defence (rating 0.789, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Amiens's projected output down. Amiens's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Metz's projected output up. Data: built from Amiens's last 62 games and Metz's last 24.
Result probabilities: Amiens 25% | Draw 29% | Metz 46%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.96 | Draw 3.44 | Metz 2.19. Metz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Metz are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Amiens's last 10 home games and Metz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 50% (last 10 home games) | Metz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 25% | Draw 29% | Metz 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Amiens 0.85 / Metz 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.896 / def 1.247 | Metz attack 0.951 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Metz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Metz xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Metz FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Metz kick off?
Amiens vs Metz kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Metz?
Amiens 1 - 2 Metz.
Where is Amiens vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Metz part of?
Amiens vs Metz is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 25% chance of winning, Metz a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Amiens and Metz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Amiens vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amiens's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 62 games and Metz's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
25%
3.96
29%
3.44
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.11
1.26
Metz xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.2 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Metz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Amiens and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Amiens and 1.26 for Metz, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 19W 20D 21L from 60 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 26L across 60 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.28 PPG, Metz on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 10W 12D 7L from their last 29 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 9W 6D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.25 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Metz
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Metz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Metz Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Metz in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 20D 21L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Metz have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Metz away?
Amiens's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.45 PPG; Metz away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Amiens or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Metz in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Metz have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jul 2022, when Metz won Metz 3-0 Amiens.
Amiens's record when hosting Metz specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Amiens
0
Draws
4
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Metz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Metz?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 0, Metz have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Metz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2025: Amiens 1-2 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 45%, Metz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Amiens) and 48% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 31% of games; Metz in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Metz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Metz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Amiens's recent matches and 52% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Metz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Amiens's recent games and 48% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Metz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Amiens's recent matches and 62% of Metz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Metz edge out Amiens 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Amiens 1-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.85 xG and Metz 1.26 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against Metz attack 0.95 / defence 0.79, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 25% | Draw 29% | Metz 46%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Metz 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Metz's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.28 PPG, Metz 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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