Amiens 4-3 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Amiens at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 9 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade de la Licorne: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Clermont Foot have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Clermont Foot are 0.50 PPG clear of Amiens in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 51% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 54% | Clermont Foot 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.07 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.829 / defence 1.090 | Clermont Foot attack 0.781 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.151. Data: 55 Amiens games / 55 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Clermont Foot 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Clermont Foot (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Clermont Foot 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Monday 9 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Amiens 1.07 / Clermont Foot 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.829 / def 1.090 | Clermont Foot attack 0.781 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Amiens (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Clermont Foot xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Amiens vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 9 February 2026 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Amiens 4 - 3 Clermont Foot.
Where is Amiens vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Clermont Foot part of?
Amiens vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 37% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Amiens and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Clermont Foot?
Record (3 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Amiens and Clermont Foot in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.83) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.78x) against Amiens's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.29
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.05
0.98
Clermont Foot xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Amiens and 0.98 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 8D 29L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 0.98 PPG from 55 outings (12W 18D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Amiens against 0.98 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Amiens's home form reads 12W 5D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (6W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.95 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 12W 18D 25L in their last 55 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Clermont Foot away?
Amiens's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.52 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Amiens
1
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Amiens 4-3 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Clermont Foot?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 52%, Clermont Foot 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Amiens) and 48% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 26% of games; Clermont Foot in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Amiens's recent matches and 48% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Amiens's recent games and 48% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Clermont Foot 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Clermont Foot 4-3 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.07 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 37% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 54%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.13 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.