Ajaccio 2-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Ajaccio take on PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees PAU travel to Stade François Coty to take on Ajaccio. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajaccio stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stade François Coty, Ajaccio have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ajaccio at 1.70 PPG versus PAU's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ajaccio have won 0, PAU 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with PAU winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 13% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
PAU in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajaccio 13% | PAU 42%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 10% | PAU 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.85 xG and PAU 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.739 / defence 0.877 | PAU attack 0.716 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.967. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Ajaccio games / 31 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 38% | Draw 39% | PAU 23%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.63 | Draw 2.56 | PAU 4.35. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — PAU's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 27%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 10% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 38% | Draw 39% | PAU 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Ajaccio 0.85 / PAU 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.739 / def 0.877 | PAU attack 0.716 / def 1.167 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.61
PAU xG
27%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs PAU kick off?
Ajaccio vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs PAU?
Ajaccio 2 - 1 PAU.
Where is Ajaccio vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs PAU part of?
Ajaccio vs PAU is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 38% chance of winning, PAU a 23% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Ajaccio and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Ajaccio and PAU in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.74) and PAU's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.2%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.66
39%
2.55
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.46
0.61
PAU xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.67
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
54%
1.83
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.2 | 14.1 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.8%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.61 for PAU, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio come into this having played 31 games, going 17W 7D 7L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (12W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of PAU — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ajaccio's home form reads 9W 3D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (2W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.48 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.03 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 13% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and PAU in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 17W 7D 7L in their last 31 games (1.87 PPG), while PAU have gone 12W 6D 13L in their last 31 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or PAU away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.00 PPG; PAU away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their recent games, PAU in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajaccio's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
2
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, PAU have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Ajaccio 1-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
PAU see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajaccio 13% BTTS, PAU 47%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 13% for Ajaccio and 33% for PAU.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 40% of games; PAU in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 13% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 47% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 13% of Ajaccio's recent games and 33% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out PAU 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat PAU 2-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.85 xG and PAU 0.61 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.74 / defence 0.88 against PAU attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 38% | Draw 39% | PAU 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 24% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 10%, PAU 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 13% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.