Ajaccio 2-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Le Havre travel to Stade François Coty to take on Ajaccio. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajaccio stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajaccio have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade François Coty — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Le Havre — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Le Havre away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ajaccio, 0 for Le Havre and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Ajaccio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 35% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajaccio 17% | Le Havre 37%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 17% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.98 xG and Le Havre 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.912 / defence 0.955 | Le Havre attack 0.931 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.032. Data: 35 Ajaccio games / 35 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 35% | Draw 34% | Le Havre 32%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Le Havre 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 30% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 35% | Draw 34% | Le Havre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Ajaccio 0.98 / Le Havre 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.912 / def 0.955 | Le Havre attack 0.931 / def 1.145 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Le Havre xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Le Havre kick off?
Ajaccio vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Le Havre?
Ajaccio 2 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Ajaccio vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Le Havre part of?
Ajaccio vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 35% chance of winning, Le Havre a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ajaccio and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 1W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Ajaccio and Le Havre in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Le Havre (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.91) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
35%
2.88
34%
2.96
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.90
0.92
Le Havre xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.92 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 20W 8D 7L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Le Havre's form line: 13W 11D 11L from 35 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 2.12 PPG from 17 outings (11W 3D 3L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 7W 6D 4L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.49 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their games; Le Havre in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 20W 8D 7L in their last 35 games (1.94 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 13W 11D 11L in their last 35 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Le Havre away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.12 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their recent games, Le Havre in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajaccio and Le Havre runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
0
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Le Havre?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, Le Havre have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Ajaccio 2-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Le Havre?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 35% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajaccio 24% BTTS, Le Havre 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Ajaccio and 35% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Le Havre in 47%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 35% of games; Le Havre in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 35% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Ajaccio's recent games and 35% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Le Havre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Le Havre 2-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.98 xG and Le Havre 0.92 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Le Havre attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 35% | Draw 34% | Le Havre 32%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 24% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 17%, Le Havre 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.