Ajaccio 1-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ajaccio face Concarneau.

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Analysis

Concarneau make the trip to Stade François Coty to face Ajaccio in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Ajaccio's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Ajaccio's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ajaccio are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Concarneau (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Concarneau's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Concarneau edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Ajaccio 1–2 Concarneau — a Concarneau win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Ajaccio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Concarneau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 33% of Ajaccio's games and 33% of Concarneau's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 38% | Concarneau 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.18 xG and Concarneau 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.022 / defence 0.859 | Concarneau attack 0.769 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.133. Concarneau's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Ajaccio's last 21 games and Concarneau's last 21.

Result probabilities: Ajaccio 46% | Draw 31% | Concarneau 23%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.17 | Draw 3.28 | Concarneau 4.28. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ajaccio's last 10 home games and Concarneau's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajaccio 50% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 20% (last 10 away games).

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