Toulouse 0-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Rennes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 1W 6D 3L at Stadium de Toulouse — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rennes (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rennes have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Toulouse, 0.80 for Rennes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Toulouse lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 3–1 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 57% versus Rennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 55% | Rennes 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.28 xG and Rennes 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.953 / defence 1.071 | Rennes attack 0.784 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.035. Data: 53 Toulouse games / 53 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 44% | Draw 33% | Rennes 23%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Rennes 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 70% | Rennes 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 44% | Draw 33% | Rennes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Toulouse 1.28 / Rennes 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.953 / def 1.071 | Rennes attack 0.784 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Rennes xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Rennes kick off?
Toulouse vs Rennes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Rennes?
Toulouse 0 - 0 Rennes.
Where is Toulouse vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Rennes part of?
Toulouse vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 44% chance of winning, Rennes a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Toulouse and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Rennes?
Record (2 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 0 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Rennes in?
Toulouse (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Rennes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.95x the league average against Rennes's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rennes's attack (0.78x) against Toulouse's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
44%
2.29
33%
3.03
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.15
0.87
Rennes xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
6%
15.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.87 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 15W 16D 22L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes's form line: 24W 11D 18L from 53 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rennes are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (7W 10D 8L).
On the road, Rennes have gone 6W 8D 11L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.68 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Rennes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 15W 16D 22L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while Rennes have gone 24W 11D 18L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Rennes away?
Toulouse's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.24 PPG; Rennes away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Toulouse
2
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Rennes?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 4, Rennes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rennes 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Rennes?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 64%, Rennes 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Toulouse) and 48% (Rennes).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Toulouse's games and 64% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Toulouse's recent games and 48% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Rennes tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Rennes in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Toulouse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 16, as Toulouse and Rennes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.28 xG and Rennes 0.87 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rennes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Rennes attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 44% | Draw 33% | Rennes 23%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 55%, Rennes 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rennes's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.