Toulouse 1-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Toulouse welcome Reims to Stadium de Toulouse. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Reims's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Toulouse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Reims in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Toulouse, 1 for Reims and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 3–2 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Reims in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Toulouse 60% and Reims 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Reims 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.38 xG and Reims 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.872 / defence 0.992 | Reims attack 1.087 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.387. Data: 43 Toulouse games / 43 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 33% | Draw 29% | Reims 38%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Reims 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Reims 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 33% | Draw 29% | Reims 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Toulouse 1.38 / Reims 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.872 / def 0.992 | Reims attack 1.087 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Reims (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Reims xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Reims kick off?
Toulouse vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Reims?
Toulouse 1 - 0 Reims.
Where is Toulouse vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Reims part of?
Toulouse vs Reims is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 33% chance of winning, Reims a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Toulouse and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Reims?
Record (4 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 1 | Reims 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Reims in?
Toulouse (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Reims (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Toulouse vs Reims?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.87x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
33%
3.02
29%
3.47
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.88
1.50
Reims xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
13.49
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.50 for Reims, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 13D 17L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 17W 10D 16L from 43 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.21 PPG, Reims on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L).
On the road, Reims have gone 7W 6D 8L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.35 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Toulouse have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Reims in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Reims in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Reims have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 0.95 PPG; Reims away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Reims runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Reims won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Toulouse
1
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Reims have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Reims 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Reims?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Toulouse at 67%, Reims at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Toulouse and 71% for Reims. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Toulouse's games and 86% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Toulouse's matches and 71% of Reims's.
Do Toulouse and Reims tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Reims in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Reims 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Reims 1-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.38 xG and Reims 1.50 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reims landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Reims attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 33% | Draw 29% | Reims 38%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, Reims 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Reims's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.21 PPG, Reims 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.