Toulouse 1-0 Reims – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Reims at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Reims encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Toulouse welcome Reims to Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Toulouse — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Toulouse have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Reims have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Reims away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Reims's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Toulouse's games and 100% of Reims's (from Toulouse's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Toulouse, 1 for Reims and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2024, ended Toulouse 3–2 Reims — a Toulouse win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Toulouse in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Reims in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Toulouse 60% and Reims 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Reims 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.38 xG and Reims 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.872 / defence 0.992 | Reims attack 1.087 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.387. Data: built from Toulouse's last 43 games and Reims's last 43.

Result probabilities: Toulouse 33% | Draw 29% | Reims 38%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.02 | Draw 3.47 | Reims 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 60% (last 10 home games) | Reims 100% (last 10 away games).

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