Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Toulouse face Montpellier.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Montpellier in Ligue 1 (matchday 32). Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Montpellier's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Montpellier away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Toulouse edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Toulouse 0–3 Montpellier — a Montpellier win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 58% versus Montpellier 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Montpellier 58%). Note also that Montpellier surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Toulouse recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.40 xG and Montpellier 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.983 / defence 1.048 | Montpellier attack 0.990 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.382. Data: built from Toulouse's last 69 games and Montpellier's last 69.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 36% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 38%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.77 | Draw 3.85 | Montpellier 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Montpellier if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Montpellier 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 36% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Toulouse 1.40 / Montpellier 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.983 / def 1.048 | Montpellier attack 0.990 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Montpellier xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Montpellier FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Montpellier kick off?
Toulouse vs Montpellier kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Toulouse 1 - 2 Montpellier.
Where is Toulouse vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Montpellier part of?
Toulouse vs Montpellier is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 36% chance of winning, Montpellier a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Toulouse and Montpellier will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Toulouse vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.98x the league average against Montpellier's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.99x) against Toulouse's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 69 games and Montpellier's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.85
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.83
1.44
Montpellier xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Montpellier Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.44 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Toulouse's recent record stands at 23W 19D 27L from 69 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 29L across 69 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Toulouse against 1.28 for Montpellier. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 9W 13D 12L from their last 34 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 14W 4D 16L across their last 34 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.51 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
Toulouse (Home) vs Montpellier (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ Toulouse vs Montpellier Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 23W 19D 27L in their last 69 games (1.28 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 24W 16D 29L in their last 69 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Montpellier away?
Montpellier's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.18 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Montpellier in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Montpellier won Montpellier 3-0 Toulouse on 29 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Montpellier — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Toulouse
0
Draws
3
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Montpellier H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Montpellier?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 3, Montpellier have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Montpellier last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2025: Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 65%, Montpellier 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Toulouse) and 56% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Montpellier Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Montpellier matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Toulouse's games and 47% of Montpellier's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Toulouse and Montpellier matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Toulouse's recent games and 56% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Montpellier matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Toulouse's recent matches and 82% of Montpellier's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Montpellier edge out Toulouse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.40 xG and Montpellier 1.44 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Montpellier attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 36% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 38%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, Montpellier 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Montpellier's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.28 PPG, Montpellier 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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