Toulouse 2-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Lyon meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lyon have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lyon have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Toulouse against 1.50 for Lyon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Lyon have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Toulouse's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Toulouse winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lyon have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 52% versus Lyon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 52% | Lyon 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.10 xG and Lyon 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.846 / defence 1.120 | Lyon attack 1.017 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.292. Data: 66 Toulouse games / 66 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 29% | Lyon 44%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Lyon 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Toulouse 30% | Lyon 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 29% | Lyon 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Toulouse 1.10 / Lyon 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.846 / def 1.120 | Lyon attack 1.017 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Lyon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Lyon xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Lyon kick off?
Toulouse vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Toulouse 2 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Toulouse vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lyon part of?
Toulouse vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 27% chance of winning, Lyon a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Toulouse and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
Record (7 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 2 | Lyon 4W.
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Lyon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (1.02x) against Toulouse's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
27%
3.73
29%
3.42
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.57
1.47
Lyon xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.26
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.47 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 22W 17D 27L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Lyon's form line: 35W 12D 19L from 66 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Lyon are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.24 PPG from 33 outings (10W 11D 12L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 12W 9D 12L from 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.77 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Lyon have gone 35W 12D 19L in their last 66 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.24 PPG; Lyon away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Lyon in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 3-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
From 9 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Lyon have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Toulouse 0-2 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 54%, Lyon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Toulouse) and 58% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Lyon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Toulouse's games and 58% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Toulouse's recent games and 58% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lyon tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lyon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Lyon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Lyon 2-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.10 xG and Lyon 1.47 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Lyon attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 27% | Draw 29% | Lyon 44%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 52%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.