Strasbourg 0-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Strasbourg vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade de la Meinau to face Strasbourg in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Strasbourg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Strasbourg have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade de la Meinau — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Strasbourg are significantly better at Stade de la Meinau than their overall form suggests.
Reims (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Strasbourg against 1.40 for Reims. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Strasbourg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Reims in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Strasbourg lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Strasbourg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Strasbourg half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Strasbourg 70% and Reims 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 62% | Reims 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.64 xG and Reims 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.148 / defence 1.037 | Reims attack 1.101 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.305. Data: 47 Strasbourg games / 47 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 41% | Draw 25% | Reims 34%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Reims 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 80% | Reims 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 41% | Draw 25% | Reims 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Strasbourg 1.64 / Reims 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.148 / def 1.037 | Reims attack 1.101 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Reims xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Reims kick off?
Strasbourg vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Reims?
Strasbourg 0 - 0 Reims.
Where is Strasbourg vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Reims part of?
Strasbourg vs Reims is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 41% chance of winning, Reims a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Strasbourg and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Reims?
Record (6 meetings): Strasbourg 2W | Draws 3 | Reims 1W.
What form are Strasbourg and Reims in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Reims (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Strasbourg's attack rating (1.15) and Reims's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.10x) against Strasbourg's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
41%
2.45
25%
4.03
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
3.13
1.49
Reims xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
7%
14.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.49 for Reims, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 13W 13D 21L from 47 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 18L across 47 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Strasbourg against 1.38 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 10W 5D 8L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Strasbourg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reims's away record stands at 8W 6D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Strasbourg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.32 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Reims in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Reims in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 13W 13D 21L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 11D 18L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Reims away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.52 PPG; Reims away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Strasbourg have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
4
Draws
1
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 3, Reims have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Reims 0-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Reims?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Strasbourg, 78% for Reims — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Strasbourg and 70% for Reims. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Strasbourg's games and 78% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Strasbourg vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Strasbourg's matches and 70% of Reims's.
Do Strasbourg and Reims tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Reims in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Strasbourg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 14, as Strasbourg and Reims drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.64 xG and Reims 1.49 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Strasbourg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Reims attack 1.10 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 41% | Draw 25% | Reims 34%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 62%, Reims 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Reims's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.11 PPG, Reims 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.