Stade Brestois 29 1-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Stade Brestois 29 welcome Saint Etienne to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Stade Brestois 29 have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Brestois 29 87% and Saint Etienne 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 53% | Saint Etienne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 2.01 xG and Saint Etienne 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.161 / defence 1.063 | Saint Etienne attack 0.768 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.189. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Stade Brestois 29 games / 15 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 60% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 16%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Saint Etienne 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 71% | Saint Etienne 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 60% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Stade Brestois 29 2.01 / Saint Etienne 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.161 / def 1.063 | Saint Etienne attack 0.768 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Saint Etienne xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 60% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.25
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.98
0.97
Saint Etienne xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
2%
46.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.97 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 4W 6D 5L from 15 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 7L across 15 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.20 PPG, Saint Etienne on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.13 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 87% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 80%.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Saint Etienne away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.29 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when Stade Brestois 29 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
1
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Saint Etienne 3-3 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stade Brestois 29 at 71%, Saint Etienne at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stade Brestois 29) and 57% (Saint Etienne).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 71% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 57% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Saint Etienne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Saint Etienne 1-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 2.01 xG and Saint Etienne 0.97 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.16 / defence 1.06 against Saint Etienne attack 0.77 / defence 1.42, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 60% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 16%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 53%, Saint Etienne 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.20 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.