Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Stade Brestois 29 welcome Lille to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lille have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Stade Brestois 29's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stade Brestois 29 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lille in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stade Brestois 29, 0 for Lille and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lille trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Brestois 29 64% and Lille 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 49% | Lille 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.04 xG and Lille 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.861 / defence 1.268 | Lille attack 1.094 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.339. Data: 55 Stade Brestois 29 games / 55 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 21% | Draw 23% | Lille 56%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Lille 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Lille (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 60% | Lille 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 21% | Draw 23% | Lille 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.04 / Lille 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.861 / def 1.268 | Lille attack 1.094 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Lille (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Lille xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 January 2023 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Stade Brestois 29 0 - 0 Lille.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 21% chance of winning, Lille a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Record (2 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Lille (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (0.86) and Lille's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
21%
4.87
23%
4.31
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.89
1.86
Lille xG
4.87
21%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
16%
6.40
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
31.20
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.86 for Lille, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 13D 26L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.55 PPG from 55 outings (23W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 8W 7D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.44 points per game from 27 outings (11W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.42 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lille in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 16W 13D 26L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Lille have gone 23W 16D 16L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.15 PPG; Lille away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Lille specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
5
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Lille have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 56%, Lille 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Stade Brestois 29) and 56% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 63% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 56% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Lille tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lille in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stade Brestois 29's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 and Lille finished level at 0-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.04 xG and Lille 1.86 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lille landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.86 / defence 1.27 against Lille attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 21% | Draw 23% | Lille 56%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 49%, Lille 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.