Saint Etienne 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Saint Etienne welcome Stade Brestois 29 to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Saint Etienne at 1.50 PPG versus Stade Brestois 29's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Saint Etienne register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 64% and Stade Brestois 29 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 55% | Stade Brestois 29 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.16 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.958 / defence 1.531 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.787 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.193. Data: 31 Saint Etienne games / 31 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 30% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 43%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Stade Brestois 29 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 70% | Stade Brestois 29 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 30% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Saint Etienne 1.16 / Stade Brestois 29 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.958 / def 1.531 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.787 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Stade Brestois 29 xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29?
Saint Etienne 2 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 30% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Stade Brestois 29 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.96) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
30%
3.36
27%
3.64
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.60
1.44
Stade Brestois 29 xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.44 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne come into this having played 31 games, going 6W 9D 16L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 0.87 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Saint Etienne's home form reads 3W 6D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Stade Brestois 29 have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.26 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Stade Brestois 29 in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 6W 9D 16L in their last 31 games (0.87 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Stade Brestois 29's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.94 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when Stade Brestois 29 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Saint Etienne 3-3 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Saint Etienne at 75%, Stade Brestois 29 at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Saint Etienne) and 44% (Stade Brestois 29).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Saint Etienne's games and 75% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 44% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Stade Brestois 29 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Stade Brestois 29 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.16 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.44 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.96 / defence 1.53 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 30% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 43%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 55%, Stade Brestois 29 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.87 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.