Saint Etienne 1-6 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (75%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Saint Etienne face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Saint Etienne have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Paris Saint Germain's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Paris Saint Germain are 2.10 PPG clear of Saint Etienne over their recent games (2.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Paris Saint Germain, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Jan 2025, ended Saint Etienne 1–2 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Paris Saint Germain half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 40% versus Paris Saint Germain 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 43% | Paris Saint Germain 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.08 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.859 / defence 1.298 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.650 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.373. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.650, which lifts their away xG to 2.94. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Paris Saint Germain's projected output up. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 26 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 60.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 11% | Draw 15% | Paris Saint Germain 75%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 9.43 | Draw 6.81 | Paris Saint Germain 1.34. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (75%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.08 / 2.94) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 50% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 11% | Draw 15% | Paris Saint Germain 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.08 / Paris Saint Germain 2.94 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.859 / def 1.298 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.650 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
2.94
Paris Saint Germain xG
63%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Saint Etienne 1 - 6 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 11% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 75% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.65x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 2.94.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 26 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
11%
9.43
15%
6.81
75%
1.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
4.03
2.94
Paris Saint Germain xG
9.43
11%
Home win
6.81
15%
Draw
1.34
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
5%
18.92
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
1%
178.45
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 2.94 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 24W 12D 24L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Paris Saint Germain, meanwhile, have gone 43W 15D 2L across 60 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 16W 5D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris Saint Germain's away record stands at 23W 7D 0L across their last 30 away games, a 2.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.57 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 70%.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 24W 12D 24L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 43W 15D 2L in their last 60 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.77 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.53 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won Saint Etienne 1-6 Paris Saint Germain on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
4
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Saint Etienne 1-6 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 40%, Paris Saint Germain 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Saint Etienne) and 57% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 37%; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 63% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 57% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 70% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Saint Etienne 1-6 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.08 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.94 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 2.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.65 / defence 0.84, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 11% | Draw 15% | Paris Saint Germain 75%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 43%, Paris Saint Germain 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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