Saint Etienne 0-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 42%, yet in-form Saint Etienne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Saint Etienne vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Saint Etienne's favour (1.80 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Saint Etienne lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 31% versus Le Havre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 37% | Le Havre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.23 xG and Le Havre 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | Le Havre attack 0.943 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.344. Data: 1 Saint Etienne games / 35 Le Havre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 32% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 42%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Le Havre 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Saint Etienne (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Le Havre 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 32% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Saint Etienne 1.23 / Le Havre 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | Le Havre attack 0.943 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Le Havre xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Le Havre kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Le Havre kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Saint Etienne 0 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Le Havre part of?
Saint Etienne vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 32% chance of winning, Le Havre a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Saint Etienne and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Le Havre in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.94x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
32%
3.14
26%
3.89
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.69
1.46
Le Havre xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
7%
13.49
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.46 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne come into this having played 35 games, going 18W 7D 10L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 0.91 PPG from 35 outings (7W 11D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Saint Etienne's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (1W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 11D 17L in their last 35 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Le Havre away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.94 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Le Havre in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won 0-6 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Le Havre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Le Havre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 41%, Le Havre 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Saint Etienne) and 53% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Le Havre in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 53% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 53% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Le Havre tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Saint Etienne 0-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.23 xG and Le Havre 1.46 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Le Havre attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 32% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 42%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 37%, Le Havre 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.