Rennes 3-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Rennes take on Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Reims travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Rennes's home record at Roazhon Park: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Reims — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 7D 0L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reims are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rennes have won 1, Reims 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2022, ended 1–3 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Reims in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 54% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 56% | Reims 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 0.93 xG and Reims 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.135 / defence 0.780 | Reims attack 0.899 / defence 0.600. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.281. Reims's defence strength of 0.600 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Rennes's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Rennes games / 68 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 33% | Draw 35% | Reims 32%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Reims 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 40% | Reims 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 33% | Draw 35% | Reims 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Rennes 0.93 / Reims 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.135 / def 0.780 | Reims attack 0.899 / def 0.600 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Reims xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Reims kick off?
Rennes vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Reims?
Rennes 3 - 0 Reims.
Where is Rennes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Reims part of?
Rennes vs Reims is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 33% chance of winning, Reims a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Rennes and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Reims?
Record (3 meetings): Rennes 1W | Draws 0 | Reims 2W.
What form are Rennes and Reims in?
Rennes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Reims (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.14) and Reims's defence rating (0.60), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
2.99
35%
2.89
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Rennes xG
Total xG
1.82
0.90
Reims xG
2.99
33%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 14.5 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Rennes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Rennes and 0.90 for Reims, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rennes's recent record stands at 35W 11D 22L from 68 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 22W 27D 19L across 68 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.71 PPG, Reims on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 25W 1D 8L from 34 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reims's away record stands at 10W 16D 8L across 34 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rennes are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.22 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Reims in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Current Season
Reims
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Reims in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 35W 11D 22L in their last 68 games (1.71 PPG), while Reims have gone 22W 27D 19L in their last 68 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Reims away?
Rennes's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.24 PPG; Reims away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Rennes or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Reims in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Reims specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
4
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Rennes have won 4, Reims have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Rennes 1-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Reims see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 38%, Reims 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Rennes) and 32% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Reims in 35%; Reims in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Rennes's recent matches and 50% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Rennes's recent games and 32% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Reims tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Reims in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Reims 3-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 0.93 xG and Reims 0.90 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reims landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.14 / defence 0.78 against Reims attack 0.90 / defence 0.60, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 33% | Draw 35% | Reims 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 56%, Reims 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reims's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.71 PPG, Reims 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.