Rennes 2-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rennes at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Roazhon Park to face Rennes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Rennes (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Rennes's home record at Roazhon Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris FC's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Rennes, 1.90 for Paris FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rennes register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Paris FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rennes 1W, Paris FC 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Rennes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Rennes — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Paris FC — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 52% versus Paris FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 64% | Paris FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.31 xG and Paris FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.999 / defence 0.907 | Paris FC attack 0.866 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.292. Data: 66 Rennes games / 32 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 42% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Paris FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rennes 70% | Paris FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 42% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Rennes 1.31 / Paris FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 0.999 / def 0.907 | Paris FC attack 0.866 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Rennes (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Paris FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Paris FC kick off?
Rennes vs Paris FC kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Paris FC?
Rennes 2 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Rennes vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Paris FC part of?
Rennes vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 42% chance of winning, Paris FC a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rennes and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Paris FC?
Record (1 meetings): Rennes 1W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 0W.
What form are Rennes and Paris FC in?
Rennes (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.00) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.87x) against Rennes's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
42%
2.41
31%
3.21
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.32
1.01
Paris FC xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Rennes and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Rennes and 1.01 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rennes come into this having played 66 games, going 29W 10D 27L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.67 PPG from 66 outings (31W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Rennes against 1.67 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rennes's home form reads 18W 5D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.42 points per game from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Rennes are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 29W 10D 27L in their last 66 games (1.47 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 31W 17D 18L in their last 66 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Paris FC away?
Rennes's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.79 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Rennes or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Rennes
0
Draws
0
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Paris FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Rennes have won 2, Paris FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rennes 2-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Paris FC?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 52%, Paris FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Rennes) and 42% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Paris FC in 33%; Paris FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rennes's recent matches and 54% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Rennes's recent games and 42% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Paris FC tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Paris FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Paris FC 2-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.31 xG and Paris FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Paris FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 42% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 27%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 64%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.47 PPG, Paris FC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.